Election Forecaster

Modern Britain’s Election Forecaster projects the potential impact of black and minority ethnic (BME) voters on future General Election results until 2035. The battle for BME votes matters: according to a recent Policy Exchange report, A Portrait of Modern Britain, the ethnic minority population is expected to double to 25-30% by 2050.

How it works

Just enter a postcode, eg CM6 3GB (with space) or constituency into the search box.
The results are shown in percentages and bubbles with a slider so you can see the results in future General Elections. You can adjust the BME vote share for any of these elections to see how it impacts the two main parties.

How it's made

The Election Forecaster is based on a demographic model developed by the University of Leeds to predict exactly where BME voters will live in the UK up to 2035. The share of the vote for each party is based on voting intentions from the 2017 General Election using data from the British Election Survey. The results are based on the new electoral boundaries proposed by the Boundary Commission in 2018.

This forecast is based on the British Election Survey data that found the following split of BME voters.

PartyWhiteBME
Conservative41.4222.79
Labour38.8764.83
Liberal Democrat9.197.22
SNP3.610.83
Plaid Cymru0.530.21
UKIP2.860.7
Green Party2.241.96
Other1.281.47